American restaurant meal sizes soared in the 1980s and have never slowed down since. The average portion of spaghetti and meatballs doubled. Bagels ballooned into six-inch-wide monstrosities. Burritos started to weigh more than a hardcover Harry Potter volume.
Nutritionists and policymakers have had little success fighting the increased food portion sizes that have been linked to obesity-related health problems. Attempts to legislate soda size limits have been rejected. Calorie counts on menu items are largely ignored and may even be harmful. Even a White House public health campaign featuring celebrities has not made much difference.
But today, a combination of economics, demography and climate science may be able to accomplish what years of government agonizing have failed to do: mitigate the impact of oversized restaurant dishes on the nation’s diet.
Americans aren’t likely to break away from endless bowls of pasta and half-pound burgers overnight, but their relationship has changed significantly: More than 75% of customers want smaller portions for less money, according to the National Restaurant Association’s 2024 industry report.
Restaurants, struggling with rising ingredient costs, are looking for ways to sell smaller portions without angering price-conscious customers. The Portion Balance Coalition, based at Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business, launched a year-long study this month to understand the problem. They hope to strike deals with at least 10 large chains, including Panda Express and Chick-fil-A.
Some restaurants are already taking action: In January, Subway introduced snack-heavy menu items like $3 hot wraps. Burger King’s largest franchise cut its chicken nuggets from 10 pieces to eight. Panera Bread’s “You Pick Two” — a cup of soup and half a sandwich or half a salad — is one of its most popular menu items.
Chip Wade, who left a career leading Red Lobster’s North American operations to become CEO of Union Square Hospitality Group in 2022, predicts the restaurant industry will eventually rethink super-sized meals. “We’re getting ready,” he said.
It’s not just food costs that are putting pressure on meal sizes: According to a 2020 food waste study, up to 40% of food served in restaurants goes uneaten. As part of efforts to slow climate change, states like California and Massachusetts are limiting the amount of food that goes to landfills. And millions of people taking GLP-1 drugs are eating significantly less than they used to.
Then there’s the phenomenon market researchers call “snackification,” where traditional meals are being replaced by snacks or small meal-like food combinations, especially among younger people. Millennials and Gen Z, in particular, are snacking more to manage ever-changing schedules, try bolder flavors with less risk, and create more nutritious diets.
On average, American adults say half of what they eat each day is snacks, according to data from market research firm The Hartman Group.
Shelley Barranco, the group’s senior vice president, said value for younger customers is a much more complicated calculation than getting the most quantity for the cheapest price: They care about whether the price is fair given the quality of ingredients and labor costs, and the impact their food has on the environment.
“Quantity-wise, it’s just the right amount for me, or for my needs at the moment,” she said.
Dana Gunders, president of ReFED, one of the nation’s leading groups fighting food waste and one of the organizations working on Georgetown University’s meal portion study, said customizing portion sizes should be as easy as your morning coffee or lunch salad.
She’d like to see restaurants offer half-bowl options or baby burritos. “I can customize everything about my order except the size,” she said. “People want this option, and they’re not getting it.”
Already, many diners are avoiding large portions by ordering kids’ meals, sticking to appetizers or turning to restaurants that offer small, shareable plates.
In an age of inflation, meal bundles have become popular. Olive Garden, for example, offers a lasagna bundle (with salad and breadsticks) that serves four to six people for about $59, allowing you to split a meal into multiple portions or feed more people than the menu says.
When Abby Famartino diners out with her husband and son, she controls her portions by ordering smaller portions. “Sometimes we’ll just order two dishes to share because we know the portions will be big,” she says.
Famartino, director of health and sustainability programs and research at the Culinary Institute of America, is coordinating the year-long experiment in collaboration with ReFED and the Portion Balance Coalition, an organization launched in 2017 that works with food manufacturers, restaurant chains, researchers and the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Among the questions they’re asking are how restaurants can change customers’ thinking about appropriate portion sizes — would changing menu descriptions, using smaller plates, or adding images to show the size of each dish help? What if they served fewer fries and allowed customers to order more for free? While many customers wouldn’t agree, that might seem like a good deal, and it would also prevent restaurants from throwing out leftovers.
Part of the problem, the researchers say, is that most people don’t know what an adequate portion of food is because they have “portion distortions”.
“Once you get used to larger portions, even the regular-sized portion feels like a cheat,” says Marion Nestle, a professor emeritus of nutrition, food studies, and public health at New York University, who studies the relationship between portion size and obesity. “I think it’s very hard to go back to that. It makes people feel awful.”
In a 2023 experiment with three independent Southern California restaurants, Kaiser Permanente helped them create “balanced portion” menus featuring portion sizes that nutritionists deemed reasonable. The average dinner portion at the restaurants is about 900 to 1,500 calories, with a balanced portion dinner being 700 calories or less. This might include 3 ounces of chicken, three-quarters a cup of rice, and two cups of vegetables.
This approach was so well received that two restaurants decided to continue it. One restaurant that didn’t want to change its large portions advertised its large portion menu as “dinner today, lunch tomorrow.” Two more restaurants then joined the study.
“The great thing about a balanced meal plan is that you don’t have to think about ordering,” one participant told the researchers. “You’ve done all your homework.”
Lead author and researcher Deborah Cohen likens the fight to cutting down to the public health campaign to get people to quit smoking, which took years and required restricting access to tobacco and emphasizing how addictive smoking is.
Dr Cohen said most people have no ability to control how much they eat when they overeat.
“We have to move towards changing the environment rather than just leaving people to fend for themselves,” she said. “If all odds are against you, you’re unlikely to succeed. It’s like trying to swim in a tsunami.”
But many customers prefer the current portions, said Kevin Hochman, CEO and president of Brinker International, which owns Chili’s Grill & Bar and Maggiano’s Little Italy, a chain founded on the concept that “Grandma always wanted people to leave feeling full and like they couldn’t eat any more.”
While some customers want to customize their meals, others don’t want to go to that much effort, he said: Some want smaller portions, while others want to splurge or get the most bang for their buck on larger meals.
“The truth about the American consumer is that people want what they want,” he said. “Our job is to meet our guests where they are, not where they need to be.”
Chipotle Mexican Grill recently learned that portions are very important to customers, and it’s not because they want smaller portions: Online food influencer Keith Lee, who reviewed a Chipotle in May, complained that there was too little chicken in his bowl.
Fans quickly sprung into action, filming employees plating bowls and walking out when they felt the portions were too small. CEO Brian Niccol was widely ridiculed when he posted a video saying the large portions were part of the chain’s ethos. Mr. Niccol eventually backed down, saying in a conference call with investors that at least 10 percent of stores served portions that were too small.
Jack Goldberg, the globetrotting restaurant influencer and founder of Jack’s Dining Room, joined thousands of Chipotle critics: He’s a fan, but he misses the days when you could get a feast for around $14.
“Nobody goes to Chipotle or Sweetgreen and thinks, ‘Oh, that’s going to be the best meal of my life,'” he says. “They think, ‘I’m going to pay $15 to $20 and get the best value.’ But now they think, ‘Maybe I can make the same thing myself and get a lot more food for less money.'”
Like others, he believes the days of food served on giant plates are over and quality is more important than ever.
