This is one of the enduring mysteries of American politics. Despite irrefutable evidence that the economy is doing better under Democratic presidents by almost every measure, many voters remain convinced that Republicans are better stewards of the economy. But if recent polls are accurate, a ray of hope is beginning to emerge. In several recent polls, Vice President Kamala Harris has all but erased former President Donald Trump’s lead on the question of which candidate is better for the economy. If this result holds up, it could be fatal to his chances of recapturing the White House. It would be nice if this shift was evidence of voter rationality and a keen understanding of economics, but it’s not.
In the latest NBC News poll (with a margin of error of 3.1 percentage points), voters give Trump a 50-41 advantage on “handling the economy.” That nine-point margin may not sound like good news for Harris, but it makes sense when you consider that earlier this year, Trump’s lead on that question over President Joe Biden was more than 20 points.
While the figures vary slightly, the overall trend is clear.
Other polls are doing even better for Harris. A CBS News/YouGov poll found Trump leading only 53-47 among those who said the economy was a major factor in their vote. A Fox News poll gave Trump a five-point lead over Harris on that measure. An Associated Press/University of North Carolina poll found Trump leading Harris by just two points on who voters trust on the economy. A Quinnipiac University poll of battleground states showed a similar gap. A Morning Consult poll had the two tied on the same question. And a Financial Times/University of Michigan poll gave Harris a two-point lead. (The CBS result is outside the margin of error, but the other polls are within the margin of error of those surveys.)
While the numbers vary a bit, the overall trend is clear: Voters are more likely to favor the Democratic candidate on economic issues than they have in the past. That’s a big win for Harris, who trounced Biden on those issues, even though Biden’s handling of the economy was far superior to Trump’s before he dropped out of the race.
Trump’s lead earlier this year was the result of a combination of memory loss, delusions and a widely shared perception that Biden, 81, would not be able to complete a second term. Voters somehow forgot that Trump’s mismanagement of the pandemic made an inevitable recession deeper and the recovery harder.
The former president may like to ask, “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” but the appropriate answer is, “Are you kidding me?” Four years ago, the economy was 10 million jobs down from pre-pandemic levels. The unemployment rate was still at 7.8% (it’s 4.2% now). Even before the pandemic, we were inflating the budget deficit that Republicans pretend to care about with tax cuts aimed at the wealthy.
Even if we want to absolve Trump of responsibility for the pandemic recession (which we shouldn’t), Biden’s economic record has been nothing short of miraculous: Millions of jobs have been created, growth has been stable, manufacturing investment directly spurred by industrial policy has increased dramatically, and the economy has vastly outperformed the rest of the world in recovering from the pandemic. That strong record also includes a surge in global inflation caused by supply chain disruptions and corporate price gouging, from which the United States recovered faster than other countries.
There is reason to believe that things could get even better for Harris on this front.
Still, millions believe that everything was better under Trump, not just prices. NPR recently interviewed a Georgia voter who said she supported Trump because “investments performed better when Trump was president.” It’s hard to imagine what she’s saying unless she’s invested in Trump NFTs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 26,925 the day before the 2020 election and closed at 42,063 last Friday, a 56% increase. The S&P 500 followed the same pattern. It closed at 3,310 the day before the 2020 election and closed at 5,702 on Friday, a 72% increase.
And yet, for the past few years, many have become convinced that the economy is doomed: In one poll conducted in May, 56% of Americans thought we were in a recession, 49% thought the stock market had fallen this year, and, perhaps most surprising, 49% said the unemployment rate was near a 50-year high when in fact it was near a 50-year low.
Millions also continue to believe that because Donald Trump is a wealthy businessman, he must really understand economics. After all, how could the man behind Trump University, Trump Steaks, and Trump Vodka not be an economic genius?
But that idea finally seems to be falling apart. Some voters may have scrutinized both candidates’ proposals and begun to conclude that Harris’ ideas are more worthy. Perhaps they’ve learned that conservative and liberal economists alike agree that Trump’s sweeping tariffs would be an economic disaster. Or perhaps they’re impressed by Harris’s plan to lower home prices.
But what’s more likely is that voter sentiment is reflected in the economic conclusion. Just as people felt Biden couldn’t do a good job on the economy because he looked old and frail, many now feel Harris will do a better job because she looks serious and competent. Since her success at the convention and in the debates, Harris’ approval ratings have risen overall, and that halo has extended to the economy. And with Trump spreading outrageous lies about immigration every day, perhaps some voters are questioning his ability to address a range of issues.
There’s reason to believe things could get even better for Harris in this regard: A Federal Reserve decision to lower interest rates would give people confidence that mortgages and car loans would become cheaper. Harris would also continue to benefit from something lawmakers have little control over: the retail price of gasoline. The national average is now $3.21 and falling, 66 cents cheaper than a year ago, and in many states prices are below $3.
By election time, Ms. Harris may actually have a lead on the economy, and voters’ reasoning may not be as rational as it was when they thought Mr. Trump was an economic genius, but at least their conclusions will not be so far-fetched.
