Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina are among seven battleground states that have been a focus for the Trump and Harris campaigns since Labor Day, with Harris showing relatively strong support in several key Midwestern states and in Pennsylvania, the state most important to her presidential hopes.
But Arizona, which Biden won by just over 10,400 votes in 2020, is currently a tough call for Harris’ campaign. Polls show Trump leading 50 percent to 45 percent. A Times/Siena poll of the state in August showed Harris leading by 5 percentage points. Hispanic voters in particular seem to be moving away from Harris, with a sizable number (10 percent) saying they are now undecided. Trump is also benefiting from the split vote in the state. Harris is trailing, but polls show the Senate Democratic candidates leading.
In North Carolina, where Trump won by just under 75,000 votes in 2020, Trump has a slight lead over Harris, with 49% of the vote to Harris’ 47%. (The poll was largely conducted before reports emerged that Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson had made disturbing posts on a pornography forum, which has some Republicans worried could hurt Trump in the state.) And in Georgia, where Biden won by just under 11,800 votes in 2020, Trump continues to hold a slight lead over Harris, 49% to 45%. The margin of error in each state is 4 to 5 percentage points.
(Follow the latest polls to see the latest Harris vs. Trump poll averages.)
The poll found that voters in the region are worried about their future and the future of the nation, suggesting that dark campaign rhetoric, in which Trump said in a debate that “our country is being lost, we’re a failed state,” may be resonating with some voters. A majority said the nation’s problems are so serious that it’s on the brink of failure. Republicans are far more likely than Democrats to hold such an uncertain view of the future, 72% to 16%.
“Whatever path we’re on right now, it’s not going to end well for me,” said Tyler Stembridge, a 41-year-old Republican fire captain in Centreville, Georgia, who said he voted for Trump in 2020 and plans to support him again in November.
