A few days ago, local elections were held in several German states, and the results were shocking, but not surprising, with a strong showing for the right-wing extremist party Alternative for Germany (AfD). Ta. This is shocking because, given history, Germans should be more afraid of the rise of anti-democratic right-wing forces than anyone else. This is not surprising since the AfD has been on the rise for some time, especially in the former East Germany, where elections were held.
I’m not a Germany expert, so I won’t speculate on what this outcome means for the future of the Federal Republic of Germany. As an American, I can tell you that, despite the vast differences in the modern histories of our two countries, the rise of Germany’s modern far right, and especially its concentration of support in economically depressed regions, is very similar. It means that they are similar.
Let’s put it this way. Thuringia, the German state where the AfD won more votes than any other party, is similar to West Virginia in several important ways. Like West Virginia, it is a place seemingly left behind by the 21st century economy, with a declining population and an exodus of young people, especially young people, to seek opportunities elsewhere. And West Virginia strongly supports Donald Trump and his party, whose doctrines are very similar to those of the AfD.
After Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 election, there was a lot of easy talk about voters being driven by economic anxiety. The real motivations of voters are more complex than that.
However, the rise of MAGA appears to be related to the economic decline of many parts of rural and small-town America. This decline is occurring in many parts of the country, including much of upstate New York, for example, but is concentrated in what Benjamin Austin, Edward Glaser, and Lawrence Summers called the “Eastern Heartland.” There is. Below, we’ll focus on West Virginia’s numbers. West Virginia is perhaps the epicenter of that core region, emblematic of both the economic and political problems of marginalized regions.
What stands out when comparing West Virginia to other parts of America is the number of men who are not working. I say “men” because even though the proportion of women in the paid labor force has increased since 1970, we still have a growing number of working-age adults with jobs. Because expectations are actually stronger for men than for women.
This is a comparison between West Virginia and New Jersey. Why New Jersey? I’ll explain in a moment. This chart shows the percentage of adults ages 20 to 64 who were unemployed in 2019 (before the pandemic).
Adults of both genders in West Virginia were far more likely to not be working, but the difference was larger for men (67% vs. 43%).
Why is not working a problem? Obviously, that means you’re not getting paid, but that’s not the only problem. Work is a source of dignity and self-respect. People who think they should be working but aren’t working, which is still a bigger problem for men than women, whether they like it or not, feel shame and are easily overcome. Anger turns into a desire to blame and flog someone. Outside.
A lack of jobs for men therefore helps extremist political movements that appeal to angry men. In Germany, the AfD has much stronger support among men than women. Opinion polls show Kamala Harris has a strong lead among American women, while Trump has a lead among men. Places with lots of unemployed men are fertile ground for MAGAs looking to woo the Manoverse.
Why is it so hard to get a job in West Virginia, especially for men?
Despite statements like J.D. Vance’s, native-born West Virginians are not losing jobs to immigrants. This is because there are very few immigrants in this state. Only 1.8 percent of the population is foreign-born, the lowest in the nation. New Jersey’s corresponding figure is near the top at 23.5%.
The similarities in the economic and political development of the United States and Germany also rule out the idea that our core regions are suffering because trade deficits are eating away at our manufacturing industries. For while it is true that the United States is running a trade deficit, Germany is running a huge surplus, and yet there is similar dissatisfaction and anger.
So what happened to Heartland? The most likely story is that 21st century economies will be driven by knowledge-intensive industries that thrive in metropolitan areas with highly educated workforces. This created a self-reinforcing process in which jobs moved to areas with more college graduates, and college graduates moved to the same places, leaving less educated areas like West Virginia behind.
So the solution is for regions that have benefited from this process to provide aid to those that are losing out? The answer, at least in the United States, is that we do indeed provide such aid, but until recently it has been the result of aid to individuals rather than a reflection of any deliberate “place-based” policy. Ta.
What I’m saying is that the federal government provides tremendous support to the American people through Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Even poor states benefit most from these programs. But poor states pay relatively little in federal taxes to support these programs. The result would be large amounts of implicit aid to low-income states. Below are federal spending and tax revenues from West Virginia (excluding coronavirus-related programs) as a percentage of the state’s gross domestic product in 2022.
In effect, the state receives huge amounts of “foreign aid” from wealthy states, equivalent to about 12% of GDP.
West Virginia also benefited greatly from the Affordable Care Act, which significantly reduced the number of residents without health insurance.
Some might argue that the federal social safety net increases people’s incomes but does not create jobs. But that’s not the case. Social security supports consumer spending and creates jobs in retail and other industries. Medicare and Medicaid support jobs in hospitals, clinics, and more. West Virginia may still think of itself as a coal state, but the numbers show that many of its jobs are ultimately driven by federal dollars, making it more accurately described as a health care state. It has been.
I think some people don’t think of employment in a hospital or service industry as a “real” job. I don’t think nurses or school teachers would agree.
What is true, and which may partially explain the political outrage in marginalized regions, is that many of the jobs created by federal aid are certainly more designated for women than coal mining. This is a trend. That may explain why the problem of unemployed adults arises. Men’s employment appears to be worse than women’s, at least in terms of political weight.
That said, the Biden-Harris administration is serious about promoting manufacturing as part of its industrial policy, and its efforts appear to be disproportionately helping core states.
What’s strange is that politicians whose core voters are angry about (Trump received more than twice as many votes as Joe Biden in West Virginia in 2020) are They are opposing the very programs that support depressed areas. Trump effectively tried to repeal the Affordable Care Act. Not a single Republican voted in favor of the anti-inflation law, which is helping to create manufacturing jobs in the Central region.
But Adam Tooze, who has some knowledge of Germany’s political economy, said that while the AfD often talks about “social deprivation” in backward regions, that is “not the basis for supporting increased state spending.”
In Germany, as in the United States, voters in marginalized regions are understandably angry and are channeling this anger into supporting politicians who make their plight even worse.
