BURNSVILLE, N.C. — Republican gubernatorial candidate Mark Robinson had just finished delivering an impassioned speech to a crowd of about 100 people gathered in a grassy town square surrounded by the Blue Ridge Mountains of western North Carolina, but he added a word of warning.
“Winning this November election is not going to be easy for anybody,” Robinson said at a rally in early September. “It’s not going to be easy for any Republican.”
CNN reported Thursday on “a series of inflammatory comments” that Robinson allegedly posted on a pornography message board more than a decade ago, ranging from supporting the restoration of slavery to calling himself a “black Nazi.”
Robinson denies authoring the messages.
The lieutenant governor launched his gubernatorial campaign last year and handily won North Carolina’s primary in March, and since then has gained notoriety for controversial comments, including mocking school shooting victims and supporting anti-Semitic conspiracy theories.
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All the while, Robinson aligned himself with party leader and former President Donald Trump, with the two appearing together on multiple occasions in North Carolina and endorsing each other’s campaigns.
Before the news broke last week, several Tar Heel State voters told USA Today they supported Trump and therefore planned to cast the rest of their ballots as a Republican block vote.
But this latest scandal may force Robinson to face a tough campaign alone that could affect all Republican candidates in the 2024 presidential election.
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Robinson’s popularity falls
Robinson’s campaign was already suffering a loss in September, with multiple polls showing her trailing her opponent, North Carolina Attorney General Josh Stein, by double digits.
Despite sharing the same platform and sharing many of the same Republican base, Robinson’s approval ratings also fell short of Trump’s.
According to a recent Emerson College poll and The Hill survey, Robinson, who was considered the most competitive gubernatorial race this season, has fallen behind, while Trump holds a one-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in North Carolina.
Robinson’s campaign said in a statement last Tuesday that they weren’t worried. “Public opinion polls have consistently underestimated Republican support in North Carolina over the last few elections,” campaign communications director Mike Lonergan said. “Mark Robinson remains in a strong position to win the November election.”
Lonergan did not respond to requests for additional comment since reporting Thursday.
Matthew Pearl, 37, who moved to North Carolina two years ago, told USA Today earlier this month that he hasn’t paid much attention to the gubernatorial race yet. Pearl, a Republican who plans to vote for Trump, said at the time that he would be voting for Robinson, a fellow Republican.
But after reading the CNN report, Pearl said that’s no longer the case.
“It really disgusted me,” said Pearl, who lives in Belmont, just west of Charlotte, N.C. “It was really shocking to see… Everybody has negative things, but these people say I’m not a good person or anything like that.”
Pearl didn’t believe Robinson’s denial and said he had begun researching Robinson’s opponent, Stein, but had not yet made a decision.
But, he said, “I know I won’t be voting for Mark Robinson, that’s for sure.”
Mixed reactions from Tar Heel State voters
At the 10-day North Carolina Mountain State Fair in Asheville earlier this month, amid a bustling center of fried food stalls and colorful amusement park rides, Christina Osterbind manned a small booth stocked with Trump merchandise.
While working in the summer heat, Osbind, 46, a resident of Virginia, said he talked about politics with many visitors. In addition to the presidential election, he said many of them also talked about the gubernatorial election.
And even before the news broke, were locals supporting Robinson as much as they supported Trump?
“Yes and no,” she said.
“It’s been a mixed bag,” Osterbind continued. “A lot of people don’t hate him. They like him. They like a lot of what he has to say. But there are some things they don’t agree with.”
Kenny Holyfield, 52, said he hasn’t made up his mind about the presidential election but is currently supporting Trump.
“I don’t like either of them,” but “I prefer fiscally responsible politics,” said Mr. Holifield, a construction project manager on the edge of the mountains in Marion, North Carolina.
But when it comes to the gubernatorial race, Holifield is more determined: “A big no-no for Mark Robinson. He’s too enthusiastic.”
“Especially when it comes to guns, he’s too extreme for me,” Holyfield added, saying he plans to vote for Stein this year.
Robinson first gained attention as a passionate advocate for gun rights as a citizen at the Greensboro City Council meeting in 2018. He soon entered politics and became the state’s first Black lieutenant governor in 2020.
Fallout from Robinson scandal continues
Trump, who once called Robinson “Martin Luther King on steroids,” appears to be distancing himself from the embattled candidate.
Trump made no mention of Robinson at a campaign rally in Wilmington on Saturday — the same day, 100 miles away in Fayetteville, Robinson made his first public appearance since the CNN report.
Incendiary comments, staff resignations: What we know about the Mark Robinson scandal
Still, the former president has not retracted his support for Robinson, and NBC News reported Friday that he has no plans to do so, despite urgings from allies and advisers.
But other prominent Republicans have withdrawn their support, including Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee. Lee, chairman of the Republican Governors Association, was scheduled to host a $500-a-ticket fundraiser in Greensboro, North Carolina, this week, but his office confirmed Friday that the event and Lee’s appearance had been canceled.
Georgia Governor Brian Kemp similarly “will not provide any further support to the Robinson campaign,” The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported Monday.
Several staffers have resigned since the scandal came to light, with the campaign announcing on Sunday that top adviser Konrad Pogorzelski, campaign manager Chris Rodriguez, finance director Heather Willier and deputy campaign manager Jason Rizk had all resigned.
The Cook Political Report immediately changed its assessment of the North Carolina gubernatorial race to “likely to be won by a Democrat.”
A White House-sized bet on North Carolina
Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina appeared on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday and called the allegations against Robinson “disturbing.”
“If that’s true, he’s unfit to hold public office,” Graham said. “If that’s not true, he’s going to be facing the largest defamation lawsuit in the history of our country.”
Still, Graham told NBC’s Kristen Welker that he doesn’t think this will have a negative impact on other Republicans.
“Robinson has to deal with that. None of the allegations are about Trump. This is all about Robinson,” Graham said Sunday. “It’s about him, not me, not Trump. It’s him who allegedly said these things. He has a right to defend himself. He needs to defend himself.”
But Democrats clearly hope that isn’t the case.
“This is great news for Democrats,” Sen. John Fetterman, D-Pennsylvania, said on Meet the Press on Sunday. “So Robinson is actually an ideal new candidate to run against.”
If Robinson were to take down Trump in the opposite sense, a Harris victory in the battleground state of North Carolina could be the deciding factor in this year’s presidential election.
Trump’s advantage in North Carolina is smaller than the lead he held over Biden in polls before President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in late July.
In a memo Friday, the Harris campaign argued that North Carolina has become “even more competitive at the presidential level” following last week’s shocking events.
“Donald Trump and Mark Robinson have long admired each other, campaigned together and shared the same harmful policies,” the memo read. “The fates of Donald Trump and Mark Robinson in North Carolina are tied.”
