The possibility of mass deportations of illegal immigrants, the “largest in U.S. history,” has become a spearhead of Donald Trump’s campaign to win the November 5 presidential election. In speeches demonizing immigrants, the Republican candidate has pledged to deport anyone without legal residency if he returns to the White House. The deportation of at least 11 million people who work, learn, consume goods and services, pay taxes, and are part of our communities would not leave the country unscathed.
In addition to the social unrest that would result from the persecution of millions of people, there would also be economic consequences if all those consumers and workers were removed from the economy. Some economists estimate that the economic losses from large-scale deportations could range from 2.6% to 6.2% of gross domestic product (GDP, the most widely used measure of national income). At 2023 levels, this would mean an economic loss of between $711 billion and $1.7 trillion.
“Economic research demonstrates that large-scale deportations of illegal immigrants shrink the economy. American workers lose their jobs and wages fall. The idea that large-scale deportations help the American people is a fantasy. Research shows that it has not worked in the past and will not work in the future,” said Robert Lynch, a professor of economics at the University of Washington and author of “The Economic Impact of Mass Deportations on Citizens and Authorized Immigrants.”
Lynch points to the impact other mass deportations in the 1930s and 1960s had on the country. More recently, Arizona’s extremely strict anti-immigration laws in 2007-2008 led to a mass exodus of illegal immigrants. Between 2007 and 2016, 40% of illegal immigrants left the state, either returning to Mexico or moving to other states with less restrictive laws, according to data from the Pew Research Center.
According to a Wall Street Journal study by Moody’s Analytics, immigration caused Arizona’s GDP to fall by an average of 2% each year from 2008 to 2015. Additionally, statewide employment fell by 2.5% between 2008 and 2015. One of the arguments often used by proponents of deportation is that it takes away jobs from American citizens, but Moody’s research found that native-born Americans and legal immigrants now hold fewer than 10% of the jobs formerly held by illegal workers.
“Politicians and deportation advocates claimed this policy would create jobs for American workers, raise wages and grow the economy, but that hasn’t happened,” Lynch said.
In 2007, there were nearly 500,000 illegal immigrants living in the state; that figure has fallen to about 275,000 in less than a decade. Between 1990 and 2005, Arizona’s illegal immigrant population grew nearly fivefold, but since 2004 the state has taken a series of measures to curb illegal immigration, barring them from receiving government benefits such as non-emergency hospital care, driver’s licenses, and in-state tuition coverage.
In 2010, Arizona passed the controversial SB 1070 “show papers” law, which allowed local police to ask for documentation from individuals suspected of being illegal immigrants, effectively creating a form of harassment for darker-skinned people. The law was struck down multiple times in court and was ultimately repealed.
Unwanted jobs
Arizona’s case suggests what will happen in the rest of the US. There are about 8 million undocumented workers in the country, 5% of the US workforce. In some sectors, their presence is essential: in agriculture they make up 22% of employment, in construction 15% and in manufacturing 8% of the workforce, but figures vary slightly depending on the source, as it is difficult to collect reliable data from a population that prefers to remain invisible.
“If you deport 22 percent of America’s farm workers because they are illegal, do you really think American workers are going to go to the cotton fields of Texas, the sugar fields of Florida, or the peanut farms of Georgia and take low-paying jobs in the scorching heat?” Lynch asks rhetorically.
In addition to leaving vacant positions, the economist argues that the loss of labour means fewer jobs for the remaining population due to shrinking demand.
“It’s very simple: If you remove 11 million people from the American economy, including 8 million who work and earn hundreds of billions of dollars a year, and spend hundreds of billions of dollars each year on food, clothing, housing, health care, entertainment, and thousands of other goods and services, what will happen is American businesses will see billions of dollars in sales decrease. Companies will cut production, lay off employees, cut wages, and the American economy will shrink,” Lynch predicts.
Other experts agree that job vacancies created by immigration lead to higher overall unemployment: A study by Brookings Institution economist Chloe East estimates that removing 500,000 immigrants from the labor market would result in the loss of about 44,000 jobs for native-born U.S. citizens.
“It’s clear that undocumented immigrants are more likely to take lower-paying, dangerous or otherwise less attractive jobs than U.S.-born or legal workers. For example, about 6 percent of undocumented immigrants work as domestic workers, construction workers or cooks, compared with about 2 percent of legal workers and 1 percent of U.S.-born workers,” East said.
An aging population and declining birth rates mean more immigrants are needed to finance programs like Social Security and Medicare. Illegal immigrants pay about $100 billion a year in taxes, even though they don’t benefit from these public programs. Supporters of deportation argue that they drain education and health resources and put an unsustainable strain on public finances, even though statistics show they contribute more than they earn.
The surge in immigration has also been reflected in an increase in deportations. Nationally, deportations rose from about 200,000 per year in the early 2000s to 400,000 in the late 2000s, then stabilized at 300,000 per year until the COVID-19 pandemic. Since then, deportations of long-term immigrants have fallen, but deportations, especially at the border, have increased.
President Joe Biden’s tougher asylum laws in June as a measure to control illegal immigration have had the desired effect of reducing illegal crossings. Last month, the Border Patrol apprehended 58,038 people at the border, a slight increase from July (56,399), but still the second-lowest number of apprehensions since September 2020. Border Patrol arrests are expected to fall 21% from last year.
Looking ahead to the November presidential election, immigration policy will likely be one of the factors most influencing votes, along with the economy and reproductive rights.
In Arizona, voters will also decide whether to tighten immigration restrictions. A ballot proposition would allow individuals who cross the border to be detained outside of immigration checkpoints, with the possibility of incarceration and deportation. The new rules would also allow state courts to order deportations, a power that has traditionally been the preserve of federal courts and which could be appealed if the measure is approved.
Confusion and fear
Domestically, Trump’s promises of deportations will not be easy to implement: “He’s talking about mass deportations but he doesn’t have the resources to do it, and the result will be an atmosphere of chaos and fear,” said Doris Meissner, a partner at the Migration Policy Institute.
According to estimates, deportations would cost between $13,000 and $18,000 per person. Where the money would come from raises another question. Invoking the Insurrection Act “would give Trump the opportunity to use part of the Defense Department’s budget to continue operations that would otherwise be unsustainable, creating a very dangerous situation at home,” according to William Galston, director of the Brookings Government Studies Program. While that seems unlikely, he warns, “Trump has been willing to create dangerous situations to achieve his goals in the past, and there is no reason to think he wouldn’t do it again. So this is not just a fantasy proposal, it’s a real possibility.”
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