India has overtaken Japan to become the third most powerful country in Asia, according to the Lowy Institute’s Asia Power Index (API) 2024. India currently ranks third in the index after the United States and China.
Launched by an Australian think tank in 2018, the Asia Power Index is an annual measure of regional power in the Asia-Pacific region. It assesses 27 countries in the region based on eight indicators, including military strength, defence networks, economic power and relations, diplomatic and cultural influence, resilience and future resources.
According to a press release issued by the Ministry of Information and Broadcasting, the latest edition of the report provides one of the most comprehensive regional power allocation assessments to date and includes Timor-Leste for the first time, reflecting the country’s growing importance in Southeast Asia.
The report asserted that India has overtaken Japan to become Asia’s third-largest power, although its “influence remains below the potential promised by its resources.” “However, the gap between the expectation of a ‘rise of India’ and the reality remains large. API indicates that India’s capacity to exert power and influence east of the Straits of Malacca is still limited. However, the fact that its influence remains far below the level promised by its resources indicates that it still has ample potential to grow further as a great power,” it further stated.
The report attributed India’s success to its resources, arguing that the country’s strength lies in its huge population, land area and economy.
The report noted that India’s young population is likely to provide a demographic dividend in the coming years, while many other Asian countries, including rival China, are rapidly aging and shrinking their workforces, and said that India’s post-COVID economic growth has boosted its economic strength by 4.2 percentage points. All other resource indicators also showed strong growth, with future resources seeing an 8.2-point increase in the score.
It was also stated that despite the rise in India’s diplomatic influence in API 2024, a significant gap remains between the narrative of a “rising India” and the reality of India’s limited power projection in Asia.
Economic ties remain India’s weak spot, dropping again in the rankings in terms of score and being overtaken by Indonesia, a trend that is likely to continue given India’s low level of economic integration with larger Asian countries and weak participation in regional economic structures, the report further said.
Moreover, India’s defence network score also fell for the third consecutive year, slipping to ninth place. The report argued that India’s non-aligned stance and caution in deepening security cooperation with the US allied network means it is likely to continue to lose relative standing in this index, despite initiating major initiatives such as the sale of BrahMos missiles to the Philippines.
