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Andrew Feinberg
white house correspondent
Vice President Kamala Harris will face off against Donald Trump in 36 days as Americans vote in the 2024 election.
Polls show that the economy remains the most important issue in this election, but Republicans and Democrats are divided on abortion and immigration.
Candidates are gearing up for the intense final stages of the campaign and are ready for either way. So what will happen to Harris and Trump in November?
The average of the latest national polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight shows Ms. Harris leading Mr. Trump by 2.8 points. On average, Ms. Harris has been trailing Mr. Trump slightly in national polls in recent weeks.
The latest poll of 2,500 U.S. adults conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies as of September 26 shows Harris at 47% and Trump at 44%.
The most important issue influencing how people vote in this election continues to be the economy, regardless of party affiliation.
According to the same poll, abortion is considered the second most important issue for 37% of voters, followed by immigration at 34%.
But for those who voted for President Trump, these priorities are reversed.
Amid border security tensions and the debunking of Trump and Republicans’ recent claims about Haitian immigration, more than half of Trump voters (57%) think immigration is one of the biggest issues. are.
Interestingly, health care and abortion are tied as the next most important issues for Trump supporters, at 23% each.
Mr. Trump has advocated for overhauling Obamacare, unsuccessfully during his presidency, and was unable to outline an alternative health policy in recent presidential debates.
Meanwhile, abortion is the top issue for Harris voters (55%). Following the reversal of Roe v. Wade, Harris herself was critical of the abortion ban.
Health care is also a top priority for Harris voters (40%), followed by housing (23%).
battleground states
Recent Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls in battleground states show Harris with an average lead of +3 points, ranging from even with Trump to a lead of +7 points.
The poll was conducted September 19-25 among more than 6,000 registered voters in battleground states, and the margin of error ranged from 1% to 4% in each state.
In Pennsylvania, where the first Harris-Trump presidential debate was held, Harris’ lead has increased from +4 points to +5 points since August.
The state tilted toward President Trump when President Joe Biden was the Democratic nominee.
In Nevada, Harris leads Trump by 7 points, 52% to 45%.
In Georgia, the two candidates are tied with 49% each, and in Wisconsin, Ms. Harris’ 5-point lead narrowed her lead over Mr. Trump to 3 points.
Harris also holds a three-point lead over Michigan and Arizona, and a two-point lead over North Carolina.
The economy remains a top issue for voters in battleground states, but the perceived “capability gap” is narrowing. Forty-five percent of voters in battleground states think Harris can handle the economy well, just behind Trump’s 49%.
It’s worth noting that a separate New York Times poll earlier this month showed Trump with a lead in Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia. This fluctuation indicates that swing states could still change by November.
Independent
A separate national Morning Consult poll, conducted Sept. 20-22 among 11,000 voters nationwide, showed Harris with a 5-point lead overall.
The Tracker poll shows Harris with 46% of the elusive independent voters, to Trump’s 42% lead overall by 4 points.
However, this difference has remained unchanged since the same poll in mid-August, when Harris won 42% of the independent vote and Trump won 38% (a 4-point lead).
What has changed is that the number of independent voters who are undecided or voting for a third candidate has fallen from one in five (20%) to one in 10 (12%).
It is important to note that these undecided voters are independents who are more likely to vote. That means that once they make a choice, the odds are likely to shift in favor of one candidate or the other.
Interestingly, even with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s endorsement of Trump, 6 percent of independents still plan to vote for a third-party candidate.
With Cornel West, Jill Stein and Chase Oliver still in the race, it remains to be seen how many independent votes they will draw on Election Day.
Who will vote?
A YouGov/Economist poll shows Ms Harris with a 3-point lead among registered voters, with 47% to Mr Trump’s 44%. The poll showed Harris with a 25-point lead among young voters under 29.
However, according to the same poll, younger generations are the least likely to vote, with 13 percent of 18-29 year olds surveyed saying they “may vote,” and 3 percent saying they would not vote or I answered that I was still unsure. .
This equates to 16 percent who are unsure about voting or have not voted, higher than any other age group and higher than the average of 9 percent. Only 65% of 18- to 29-year-olds surveyed said they were sure to vote in November.
This compares to 77% of those aged 30 to 44, 85% of those aged 45 to 64, and 94% of those aged 65 and older.
While the numbers may seem dire and represent some hesitation among young voters, the overall picture is far more interesting than in 2020.
The same YouGov/Economist poll at this stage of the 2020 presidential election found that nearly a third (27%) of young people are not keen to vote in November, with 10% saying they “might” vote. 17% said they would definitely/probably not vote. vote.
Arizona: Important Issues
In Arizona, a historically Republican state with 11 electoral votes that flipped to Biden in 2020, polls showed an inconsistent lead between Harris and Trump. .
The Trump campaign made frequent stops in the state over the summer.
In Arizona, which borders Mexico, one in five voters (19%) say immigration is the most important issue influencing their vote, according to the same poll. .
This is second only to the economy, which is the biggest issue affecting voters across the state and nationwide.
A majority of Arizona voters (51%) believe Trump is capable of handling key issues, a trend that has reversed since August, when confidence in Harris was slightly higher. .
This suggests that despite overall enthusiasm for Harris’ debate performance, Arizona voters may still support Trump and his approach to key issues. As a generally Republican state, this is not surprising.
demographics
A separate poll conducted last week by The New York Times and Siena College found Trump and Harris deadlocked nationally, with 47% of the likely vote each.
This is a slight change from the same poll in early September, which unexpectedly showed Mr. Trump leading Ms. Harris by +2 points.
A new poll of 2,437 likely voters conducted after the debate found that 67% of respondents said Harris did well in the debate, while the same was true for Trump. 40% of respondents thought so.
Harris maintains a commanding lead among women (12 points), while Trump has a 14-point lead among men.
In particular, Ms. Harris increased her approval rating among people under 34 years old after the debate, and her vote share increased by 7 percentage points to 58%, giving her a 21-point lead over Mr. Trump.
Meanwhile, her lead among the 30-44 age group has narrowed, leaving her with Trump by just 4 points. However, Trump’s lead in the 45-64 age group also narrowed to just 2 points.
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An early September poll showed Harris with a 12-point lead among white college-educated voters. After the debate, this group made the most significant gains, giving Harris a 25-point lead with 61% of the vote.
Interestingly, a New York Times pre-debate poll found that nearly a third (28%) of voters felt they needed to learn more about Harris, compared to 9% about Trump. It has been shown that they think they are the same.
But a New York Times poll found that half of voters (50%) felt they “learned a lot” about Harris during the debate, while only three said the same about Trump. In this respect, the debate was beneficial to Harris. .
Likeability
The vice president has suffered from negative overall favorability ratings since July 2021, which is not unusual for someone in public office.
But on September 18, Ms. Harris’ positive and negative favorability ratings were tied for the first time in more than three years, according to an average of all favorability surveys compiled by FiveThirtyEight.
The debate may have been a chance for Harris to change public perceptions and ultimately foster more favorable opinions of her and her campaign.
The same cannot be said for Trump, whose online favorability rating is -9.9 and has remained negative since the last election. JD Vance also entered the race with a negative rating, but that rating has increased over time and now averages -10.7%.
According to FiveThirtyEight, Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Walz is the only candidate to enter the race with an increased favorability rating and continue to do so, with an average favorability rating of +3.9. .
However, Mr. Biden has also suffered from negative ratings since September 2021. Favorability rating is the lowest on average at -14.6%.
A CNN poll after the first debate between Trump and Harris showed that Harris had succeeded in turning the tide with the support of some voters.
Following the debate, more voters believe that Harris (44%) understands the issues of people like them better than Trump (40%). Before the debate began, the opposite was true.
