Local environmental groups are suing the Vermont Department of Natural Resources, alleging the agency failed to help Vermont meet a critical deadline to reduce greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate warming.
Environmentalists say if this isn’t corrected, it raises doubts about authorities’ ability to enforce the law in the future.
In 2020, the Vermont Legislature overrode a veto from Governor Phil Scott and passed the Global Warming Solutions Act, which mandates by law that the state make deep cuts to its emissions by 2030 and 2050, with the first deadline looming in 2025.
The act requires Vermont to reduce emissions by:
26% reduction compared to 2005 by 2025 40% reduction compared to 1990 by 2030 80% reduction compared to 1990 by 2050
The law requires ANR to track Vermont’s progress and step in at various points if it appears Vermont is on the verge of missing the deadline. The first check required by law was on July 1 of this year.
In July, ANR Director Julie Moore wrote to the Vermont Climate Council that the state was on track to meet the initial 2025 deadline — just barely — but would end up falling 13,000 tonnes short of what was needed.
But the Conservation Law Foundation and other groups argue the state relied on incomplete data and used an improperly calibrated model to make its determination.
This is essentially a situation where the state is in power.
Elena Mihaly, Vice President, Conservation Law Foundation
“This is essentially a state-in-control situation,” said Elena Mihaly, director of the Vermont Conservation Law Foundation.
Jared Duvall of the Energy Action Network, a nonprofit data and analysis group, told regulators earlier this summer that the ANR’s assessment of Vermont’s progress was likely way off, and that the state is on track to miss the 2025 deadline by about 542,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.
Vermont Emissions Status
This is roughly the amount of greenhouse gas emissions produced by 130,000 gasoline-powered cars in a year, and equivalent to the amount produced by around 70,000 households in the same period.
A consulting firm hired by the Conservation Law Foundation scrutinized that estimate and estimated that Vermont stands to miss the January deadline by nearly 307,000 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent — the amount of carbon emitted by roughly 73,000 cars in a year.
CLF is asking ANR to improve its modeling and recommend ways to get Vermont back on the right track, such as proposing new regulations similar to those in other states that would phase out the sale of certain appliances that burn fossil fuels, such as propane water heaters.
“We know we can’t put in place any regulations, even emergency regulations, that will affect emissions in 2024, but that doesn’t mean we should give up and go to 2030,” Mihaly said. “The 2025 emissions reduction requirement is there for a reason.”
Additionally, the nonprofit said, going forward, there should be more transparency about how state regulators will determine whether Vermont is on track to meet emissions reduction deadlines.
Moore said the department has hired consultants to help refine the model but is sticking with staff projections that Vermont is on track to meet the 2025 requirement.
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Moreover, Moore said it is unrealistic and a flaw in the law to expect ANR to get the state back on track within six months of the emissions deadline.
“Frankly, our rulemaking process often takes longer than six months, and the impact of such rulemaking typically accumulates over several years,” Moore said. “So I cannot imagine that my decision on July 1, even if it had been the opposite, would have materially changed the situation we inevitably face on January 1.”
I cannot imagine how the situation that we will inevitably find ourselves in on January 1st would have been significantly different if my July 1st resolution had been the opposite.
Julie Moore, Vermont Secretary of Natural Resources
Moore defended the transparency of ANR’s accounting, saying Vermonters have had ample opportunity to attend state climate council meetings and share feedback.
CLF’s Mihaly said he still hoped for a settlement with ANR, and Moore acknowledged that the agency has so far refused to meet with advocates about the modeling process.
More from Vermonters: Is Vermont on track to meet its 2025 climate action goals? Not everyone agrees.
“I truly believe that if we could sit down with agency staff and modeling professionals, roll up our sleeves and talk to them about the differences that we’re seeing and hearing from them, we would come a long way toward solving the issues that we’re raising,” Mihaly said.
But Moore said he doesn’t think such meetings are a good use of staff time, and the lawsuits would further impede efforts to figure out how to meet the next, bigger deadline in 2030. All parties involved agree Vermont won’t meet that deadline.
“We have provided regular updates and opportunities for review and comment through a very public process of the Climate Council and its subcommittees,” Moore said. “Given that we have provided robust public engagement for all Vermonters through our work, we didn’t feel it was particularly important to have a one-off conversation.”
The suit has been filed in state court, where ANR will have an opportunity to argue.
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