The 2024 election “supercycle” is in full swing. Rare than a super blue moon, this is an election year that is not expected to happen again until 2048. The exact numbers vary, as elections are not always fixed and are sometimes known for a long time, but the statistics being bandied about were notable. Earlier this year, we predicted that 83 national elections would be held in 78 countries, with more than 4 billion votes cast and more than 50% of global GDP cast in the polls. The “Super Bowl of Democracy” has added to the growing global uncertainty, which is understandably influencing the thinking of hundreds of billionaires.
Election numbers are surprising, but they can also be distracting. It’s important to study the numbers and take every opportunity to ask important questions. Do all elections really matter? Are they free and fair? Is there a crisis looming over the incumbent, and if not, is there a shift in policy? Is there an interaction between elections and expected policy changes?
For example, according to Freedom House, 48% of the elections expected in 2024 were to be considered free, 30% were to be considered partially free, and 22% were to be considered not free. Just knowing this changes how the numbers are interpreted and changes the perspective of each observer as they seek to understand the potential impact.
The most anticipated elections are just around the corner, with many countries teetering on the brink before deciding on economic policy, national security strategy, and international diplomacy. Elections do not take place in a vacuum. We live and operate within an intertwined global ecosystem, where macroeconomic and geopolitical events influence domestic policy, which naturally influences individual decision-making. also has an impact. The coronavirus and the Russia-Ukraine conflict are two recent examples of how certain events can cause severe shocks to both the global business environment and individual decision-making.
The huge impact of generative artificial intelligence
It’s nearly impossible not to mention the impact of artificial intelligence (AI), which has profound implications beyond commonly discussed workforce planning issues. Generative AI is a transformative force, fundamentally altering the world order and increasing global uncertainty.
The past 100 years have seen multiple changes in the global power relationship and configuration. We are now witnessing a new world order taking shape, but it has not yet been comprehensively explained by scholars or agreed upon by practitioners. What is clear is that this new global hierarchy does not match existing boundaries and does not adhere to old school rules and definitions. It is fluid, changing increasingly rapidly, and becoming harder to understand and decipher. There are five main reasons why AI is playing an important role in changing the world order.
East vs. West rivalry
AI is critical to the development and end state of geopolitical competition. The combined economic and national security interests of leadership in AI will largely determine the outcome of the U.S.-China conflict and how countries around the world align politically, economically, and socially. I will. That means you may have to choose a side.
The rise of middle power
Middle powers, including Canada, France, India, Israel, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, UAE, and the UK, will leverage AI to punch above their weight. With strong education and innovation systems, these developed countries can leverage AI within their economies to compensate for their shrinking population size and declining geopolitical influence.
growing inequality
Least developed countries will be left behind in the current race for AI and its benefits to economic growth and national security. Without access to expensive computing power, physical infrastructure, and large AI talent pools, these countries will increasingly need to offer trade and market access in exchange for access to powerful AI. It will be.
Rogue states and non-state actors
Needless to say, people with strong AI capabilities can try to advance their own agendas, regardless of the consequences.
Growing private sector influence
In the short term, governments will increase their reliance on private companies and their fast-paced AI innovation, leading to stronger public-private partnerships. There is potential opportunity for companies that are not torn between competition and regulation between the United States and China, or between the West and the East, but there are serious consequences for not picking winners.
Pursuit of political stability
We are living in unprecedented times. Emerging conflicts in the United States, in many European countries after the recent EU elections, and in the Middle East clearly highlight divisions within countries and regions.
Political uncertainty is a key, if not the driving factor behind the increasing migration trend of millionaires and multi-billionaires. When considering a new destination, these high-net-worth individuals typically evaluate a variety of factors that influence their decision-making process, including quality of life, economy, tax environment, business and investment opportunities, and privacy and security. All these important aspects are usually more optimal in politically stable countries and regions, further emphasizing the importance of political stability.
North America continues to lead the way
In 2024, most centimillionaires will still be concentrated in the United States (34%), followed by China, Germany, and India. One-third of the world’s centimillionaire community lives in the world’s 50 major cities, with 744 centimillionaires living in New York City. The world’s top 50 includes 15 US cities, with 1.915 trillion millionaires between New York City, the Bay Area, and Los Angeles. The U.S.-to-Canada migration trends identified last year and whether global migration to the U.S. will continue into 2025 will depend on the upcoming U.S. elections, which are expected to bring dramatic differences in fiscal, monetary, economic, and social policy. will largely depend on.
Borders beyond America
The U.S. election result could undermine North America’s appeal as centimillionaires look to countries that offer more economic security. But how much will it cost in the long run? Many of their decisions hinge on the potential fragility of the political environment. Current trends show that Asia, especially China, is the main hub for centimillionaires between Beijing (347), Shanghai (322) and Hong Kong (320). London is home to 370 centimeter millionaires and Europe has always played its part, but it remains to be seen whether it is seen more as a residence than a holiday destination.
Featured cities
A notable wealth hub for companies operating in the luxury goods, wealth management and high-tech sectors, existing trends are accelerating and the US solidifies its ranking as the top country attracting multi-millionaires. It is expected that Major U.S. cities projected to see healthy wealth growth include Philadelphia, Atlanta, Scottsdale, Montecito and Santa Barbara, Naples, Denver, Tampa and Sarasota, and Boca Raton. However, Riyadh remains the number one city to watch, with Manchester, Perth, Stockholm, Istanbul and St. Petersburg rounding out the top ten. The Middle East, particularly the UAE and Saudi Arabia, remains the most powerful billionaire magnet.
people looking for their next vacation
Approximately 65% of centimillionaires own a vacation home outside their home country, and this percentage rises to more than 90% when vacation homes are included in the home country. Centimillionaires love to travel, are seasonal, and have a strong gravitational pull towards Europe and America. In Europe, Liguria (more than 550 centi for the season compared to the usual 84 cents), Nice (500 centi for 95 cents), Algarve (250 centi for 48), Cannes (28 centi for 200 centi) , Mykonos (against 200 centi) is considered to be in the top spot. vs. 22). In the United States, the population of the Hamptons swells from 25 cm to more than 600 cm in the summer, and the population of Palm Beach and West Palm Beach soars from 69 cm to more than 400 cm, and the population of the Hamptons has soared from 69 cm to over 400 cm in the summer. The desire to enjoy the West sees Aspen’s population rise from 10 cm. , Park City from 12 and Jackson Hole from 15, all over 200.
What lies ahead?
The trend from last year has not changed. The Middle East is a magnet and Asia is seeing big moves, but most of the billionaires are in the US, with Canada remaining a local rival.
Of all the factors that centimillionaires consider, political stability is extremely important and definitely outweighs all others. After a year of COVID-19, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, rising tensions in the Middle East, the transformative impact of generative AI, and an unprecedented electoral supercycle, a “wait and see” strategy is being adopted. It is not surprising that The world is awaiting the results of the US presidential election in November. This trend is already recognized among multinational companies and is not surprising given the intensity of competition and global impact. As the situation settles down after November, further developments are expected in 2025. Either existing trends will strengthen and accelerate, or, a more rare scenario, patterns that have been consistent for the past few years will change.
