A recently released Arizona State University election study reveals the concerns and preferences of Arizona’s Latino voters.
The wide-ranging survey, overseen by ASU’s two research centers focused on Hispanics and Latinos, surveyed registered voters about the presidential election, domestic issues, state ballot measures on immigration and abortion, and the Arizona Senate race. I asked him what he thought about it.
Francisco Pedraza, associate professor at ASU’s Center for Latin American Studies/Center for the Study of American Politics, and Stella Rouse, director of the ASU Center for Hispanic Studies, met on Oct. 29 at the Walter Cronkite School of Journalism and Mass Communication in downtown Phoenix. Presented research results at First Amendment Forum. . A presentation on the findings was followed by a discussion moderated by Arizona Republic reporter Daniel Gonzalez.
Rouse explained that survey respondents are registered voters who are asked who they plan to vote for, and similar polls ask participants who they will vote for on the day they are asked the question. he pointed out.
“Our view is that there is still a lot of movement in the district, and certainly what happened here last week could change the outcome of the election,” Rouse said during his presentation.
Rouse, a political science professor at ASU, said in an interview before the event that former President Donald Trump’s re-election could be affected because Puerto Rican voters are still undecided. A speaker at President Trump’s Oct. 27 rally at Madison Square Garden described the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico as a “floating island of trash” as he stood before thousands of people at the podium.
The survey found that Arizona’s Latino registered voters already support Democratic candidates over Trump. They express nearly 51% support for Vice President Kamala Harris as the presidential candidate, comparable to her support among registered Latino voters nationwide and registered voters in Arizona at large. % and 51% respectively. According to the survey, 32% of registered Latino voters in Arizona support President Trump for a second term, while 36% of voters nationally and nearly 38% of registered voters in Arizona support the Republican candidate. are.
A significant percentage of registered Latino voters surveyed were undecided, would vote for someone other than Harris or Trump, or did not vote. The group represents 17% of registered Latino voters in Arizona and nearly 21% of registered Latino voters nationwide.
“That’s why they’re still out in the streets doing street outreach because they know there are voters who haven’t voted yet and they’re wondering, ‘Am I going to be persuasive?’ “According to our data, there are several things that could have this effect to some extent,” Pedraza said.
Poll: Latest Arizona poll shows Trump maintains a narrow lead over Harris, but race remains close
Arizona’s Latino registered voters said the most important issues they want the next president to address are improving wages and incomes, job creation, and border security.
The survey also found that Proposition 314, which would partially criminalize unauthorized border crossings at the local and state level and give state judges the power to order deportations, received majority support from registered Latino voters. It has also become clear that Approximately 45% of respondents said they somewhat or strongly supported the idea.
Rouse said the border is “a big concern for Latinos living in border towns.” The border is a “major issue for Arizona voters, especially Arizona’s Latino voters.”
But when fentanyl was mentioned in the survey, support for the ballot measure jumped to about 54% among registered Latino voters in Arizona.
Pedraza said the survey does not ask follow-up questions, such as whether respondents understand that fentanyl enters the country primarily through ports of entry, rather than literally crossing the border. He explained. He said the survey questions “mimic” what voters would write on their ballots and that “the overall message is this is bad, this is associated with crime, and we’re going to stop it.” That’s what I want to do.”
Local advocacy groups like Arizona Living United for Change have repeatedly campaigned against the bill since its creation in the state Legislature. But Pedraza and Luz argued that the intensity seen during the protests against Senate Bill 1070 in 2010 has lagged in this election cycle.
Meanwhile, a survey conducted by Democratic U.S. Rep. Ruben Gallego and Republican television personality Kali Lake on who they support in the state’s Senate race found that registered Latino voters and registered voters in general were nearly identical. Ta. The general registered voters were expected to vote for Gallego-Overlake 47% to 31%.
If elected, Mr. Gallego would become Arizona’s first Latino U.S. senator, but he actually received more votes among registered voters at large than among registered Latino voters, who were expected to vote for him, 45% to 31% for Lake. Support was slightly better.
The survey was conducted online from September 23rd to October. 11. This includes a national sample size of 3,399 with an overall margin of error of 1.7%, a sample size of Arizona registered voters of 1,213 with a margin of error of 2.8%, and a sample size of Arizona registered Latino voters with a margin of error of 440. was 4.7%. error.
(This story has been updated to add new information.)
