Voters line up outside a polling place in central Texas. Suzanne Cordeiro/AFP via Getty Images
Donald Trump has made anti-immigrant rhetoric a centerpiece of his campaign. He called immigrants “drug traffickers” and “rapists” and repeatedly claimed they were “tainting the blood” of America. But since he hit the presidential ticket, the former president’s share of the Latino vote has increased by 8 percentage points, and next week’s election is likely to increase that swing even further.
Many may forget, but Latinos have not always voted loyally Democratic throughout history. Back in 1980, Ronald Reagan reportedly quipped, “Latinos are Republicans. They just don’t know it yet.” President Reagan’s Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986 granted amnesty to nearly 3 million immigrants, primarily Latino immigrants.
Today, the Latino vote has grown to account for 14.7% of the national electorate, and the Republican Party is once again trying to win over the entire population. In a pitch to Latino voters in Miami, President Trump called Kamala Harris “a far-left lunatic who will turn this country into ‘Venezuela.'” The former president is on track to become the first Republican in 20 years to defeat a Democratic president among Florida’s Hispanic voters.
Delmar Solto, a Honduran-American businessman living in Miami, plans to support Trump in the election. His father, who gained legal status in the United States through President Reagan’s pardon, now views President Trump as a misunderstood candidate. “I think he has the country’s best interests at heart,” he told Latin Times, noting that his vote was motivated more by economic concerns than identity politics.
The highly diverse Latino vote still leans Democratic in most states, but there is evidence of further Republican growth. So what is drawing Latinos to the Republican Party, and how does history help contextualize these changing concerns?
Economic concerns gain attention
President Trump’s xenophobia toward Latinos, coupled with the statistical change in approval ratings for the former president, has raised questions among many. But this seemingly puzzling contradiction may open the way to a deeper understanding of people’s priorities.
The economy has always been the deciding issue for many Latino voters. “This country is going in a bad direction,” Salt said, adding that “inflation is going up significantly.” He believes the Trump administration will “improve inflation” and “take back control of the housing market.”
But historically, Democrats have held sway over economic issues among Latino voters, especially during crises like the 2008 financial recession. Marcel Roman, an assistant professor of government at Harvard University and an expert on Latin American political behavior, explains how the Democratic Party was “understood more as a party of economic redistribution,” and this fact helped Barack – He believes it may have contributed to Obama’s 2008 election victory.
Economic pressures such as inflation and rising house prices are now redefining which political parties are trusted on fiscal matters. Salt believes Republican fiscal policy is “in (his) favor,” saying lower taxes are a benefit to him as an independent contractor.
“We are in a moment where it looks like Mr. Trump is taking ownership of these issues,” Roman told Latin Times, adding that during the COVID-19 pandemic, , noted that Trump’s opposition to lockdowns supported what Latinos value most: their ability to keep working.
“Latinos are primarily working class, many work in the essential goods and service sectors, and they have two considerations in mind: One, they don’t want to get sick,” Roman said. Ta. “But the other thing, I think the most dominant thing was, we need to put food on the table.”
As a result, those who prioritize finances are more likely to support Trump, a trend that appears to be here to stay heading into the 2024 election.
Immigration: A decisive issue?
Along with the economy, immigration enforcement is also at the forefront of the Republican campaign. But the Biden administration has also taken a tougher stance on the issue over the past year, with deportations reaching record numbers.
According to the think tank Immigration Policy Institute, 775,000 undocumented immigrants were expelled from the country in the 12 months following the end of Title 42 in May 2023, more than in any fiscal year since 2010. Ta. But President Trump has taken this a step further, claiming he will carry out the largest “mass deportation” in U.S. history.
Still, many Latino voters intend to support strong immigration controls. According to a June 2024 poll conducted by the Hispanic advocacy group UNIDOSUS, 58% of Latino voters prioritize increasing funding for additional border security.
“I definitely think we should protect our borders,” Salt said, adding, “If we don’t manage immigration, it could get out of hand.” “There will not be enough housing and there will be an influx of criminals from other countries.”
Salt views immigration management through a lens of personal responsibility, prioritizing legal entry and orderly processes. He explained that his parents “acted the right way,” adding that immigrants “have to walk the whole nine yards to get into the country.”
Roman, on the other hand, recognizes this idea as part of a “process of selective separation.” This phenomenon has led some voters to believe that President Trump’s immigration policies are It has become possible for them to align with Mr. Trump’s policies even when they seem to contradict their own experience.
Ethnic decline and changes in the political situation
Changes in the demographics of Latino voters may help explain this political realignment. Currently, growth in the Latino population in the United States is primarily driven by U.S.-born children rather than immigrants, resulting in demographics that are less tied to the immigrant experience and more assimilated into broader U.S. culture. .
Roman argues that in the past, in standard Latino neighborhoods, there was an “influx of immigrant-origin groups (…) that reminded them of their experiences of social rejection, alienation, and a kind of anti-immigrant discrimination suffered by their parents and their parents.” ” he explained. Your grandparents may have experienced it too. ”
Due to population growth due to births, “second-, third-, and fourth-generation (Latinos) are increasingly removed from the immigrant experience,” Roman detailed. According to the assistant professor’s research, this shift is contributing to a phenomenon known as ethnic attrition, in which descendants of Latino immigrants become increasingly unable to identify as Latino.
“Latinas in the United States have, to some extent, assimilated to the reproductive norms of white British women, for example. They are having fewer children than they used to,” Roman added. With each successive generation, Latinos have become more “acculturated” and their political interests have gradually shifted to reflect those of white Americans.
At the same time, Latino voters are moving from traditional urban enclaves to America’s suburbs and rural areas, where they encounter white, often conservative neighbors.
In 2022 polls, 58% of Latino voters in urban areas said they would vote Democratic, compared to less than 50% in rural and suburban areas. Similarly, they were more likely than people in urban areas to support the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.
Roman explained that he felt that “distancing from the immigrant experience diminishes concerns about anti-immigrant discrimination” and that this could have “political ramifications.”
With 22% of Latinos projected to be first-time voters in November 2023 polls, the process of ethnic attrition could certainly be pivotal in determining the election outcome.
Volatility in the Latino vote: then and now
This is not the first time the Latino vote has fluctuated. George W. Bush won 40% of the Latino vote in 2004, while Obama won 71% in 2012. However, it is essential to note that the U.S. Latino population is highly socially and politically diverse. August Noticias Univision/YouGov poll: 44% of Latino men support the Republican Party, compared to just 33% of Latinos.
On the other hand, 46% of Cuban Americans support the Republican Party (45% support the Democratic Party), and only 37% of Puerto Rican Americans support the Republican Party (58% support the Democratic Party). At President Trump’s Madison Square Garden rally on Sunday, comedian Tony Hinchcliffe called Puerto Rico a “floating island of trash,” a moment that could prove costly for President Trump.
As Democratic strategist Carlos Odio put it, these comments were “very inflammatory and intended to be massively amplified.” Odio pointed out that these remarks were called out by “major players who[until then]had been on the sidelines in this election,” namely Puerto Rican artists Bad Bunny and Ricky Martin.
Republicans may have been playing with fire. Of the approximately 600,000 eligible Latino voters in Pennsylvania, a battleground state that some believe will be decisive in Tuesday’s election, more than 470,000 (nearly 80%) are Puerto Rican. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump in Pennsylvania by just over 80,000 votes.
In general, Latino voting patterns tend to change in response to changes in party stances on immigration and other socio-economic issues. Roman said President Reagan’s 1986 pardon created goodwill within some Latino communities.
“There was a period, especially in the 1980s (…) in places like California, where it was a little unclear where Latino partisanship was going. During the Reagan administration, there were a lot of Latinos who identified with the Republican Party. ” he said.
But as Roman pointed out, this goodwill “was dashed by Republicans pushing anti-immigrant policies like Prop. 187, which would ban illegal immigrants from public service.”
Both parties have checkered pasts on this issue. The Illegal Immigration Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act, enacted by Bill Clinton in 1996, put the government on the path to increasing the number of annual deportations by 20 times from 1980 (18,013) to 2012 (419,384). Opened. His first term had high deportation rates.
“I think what this shows is that both parties are not taking Latino voters for granted,” Roman said. “Their commitment will have a major impact on who Latin Americans decide to support.”
Salt praises President Reagan’s amnesty policy, which allowed his father to come to the United States legally and bring the rest of his family with him. “He was the last American president to do that,” he said.
“If Trump seizes power and does something particularly bad on immigration, he could face a political backlash from Latinos who may have supported him in 2024,” Roman said. No,” he suggested.
It remains unclear whether the Republican advance signals a permanent realignment or a temporary shift. But as Latino voices make up a growing share of the electorate, it is as important as ever to address their concerns.
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