WASHINGTON (AP) — Americans are more likely to say being a woman will hurt Kamala Harris’ chances in November’s election than they were eight years ago when Hillary Clinton was running, and they’re also more likely to think Donald Trump’s gender will give him an advantage.
A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Policy Research found a shift in the attitudes of U.S. adults between the first and second female candidates running among major party candidates. The change in attitudes was driven mostly by Democrats, especially Democratic men. Before Clinton’s loss to Trump, about 3 in 10 Democratic men thought Clinton’s gender would be a “somewhat” or “a lot” of a disadvantage. Now, about half say the same about Harris.
“It’s fair to say that this country doesn’t have a remarkable track record of supporting women candidates,” said Julian Zeng, a 34-year-old copy editor and writer from California and a Democrat.
Democratic women are also increasingly likely to say being a woman could be an obstacle for a presidential candidate: Four in 10 Democratic women say Clinton being a woman would be a disadvantage to them, and about half now say the same about Harris. There’s only a slight change among Republican men, and views among Republican women are holding steady.
Americans are also more likely to see Trump’s gender as a factor that improves his chances of winning: About 4 in 10 U.S. adults now say being male would give Trump an advantage, up from about 3 in 10 when the same question was asked in an Associated Press-NORC poll during the 2016 campaign.
Polls help explain how both candidates are addressing gender issues
The poll results are likely to intensify debate over the way both candidates have addressed gender issues in their campaigns.
While the prospect of a female president could excite her supporters, Harris has not been as focused as Clinton on the history-making potential of her victory. She has campaigned on reproductive rights and highlighted Trump’s nominations of three Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn national guarantees of abortion rights.
For years, Trump has liked to blast The Village People’s “Macho Man” while traveling to and from campaign rallies, has courted younger men, appeared at mixed martial arts events and football games to promote his manly image and has recently begun calling himself a “protector” of women.
Carlos Stallworth, a 59-year-old California Republican, said Trump’s gender appeal was evident in his campaign, calling the former president a “man’s man, a man’s man.”
Stallworth, who said he is undecided about the November presidential election but supports Trump, said he is skeptical that Harris can win and feels she has not come across as a strong next commander in chief because she has not unveiled a more detailed plan, particularly on issues such as the economy, that would help overcome attitudes in a “male-dominated world.”
“She’s going to have to put in a little more effort than the average guy,” he said.
Some voters said Trump’s persona and rhetoric could help Harris overcome deeply held views about women’s power.
“I think if it hadn’t been Trump, it would have hurt her,” said Elizabeth Aguilar, 48, a college professor in Illinois.
What you need to know about the 2024 election
Aguilar, a Democrat, said she thinks some voters may still be resistant to the idea of a woman president.
“But I think his comments and his misogynistic attitudes are so extreme that people might ignore the fact that she is a woman,” she said.
Clinton says she’s “very optimistic” about Harris
Only about a quarter of Americans say Harris’ gender “wouldn’t affect” her chances of winning this fall’s presidential election, lower than the one-third who said the same about Clinton in 2016. Just under half say Trump’s gender wouldn’t matter, lower than about six in 10 when he first ran for president.
In a recent interview with The Associated Press ahead of the poll, Clinton said she was “very optimistic” that Harris would win, and that she would benefit from the fact that the public has grown accustomed to the image of a female presidential candidate, not only because she ran for president eight years ago, but also because four years later there was a fierce Democratic presidential primary that featured multiple women.
“There’s no longer just one image of who I am as a woman running for president,” Clinton said. “We have a broader perspective, and I think that’s all a good thing.”
Shereen Bates, 51, a Republican from Pocatello, Idaho, said she hasn’t yet decided who she will support in November’s election but is optimistic that Harris’ gender won’t be a barrier for other voters.
“I really hope that people don’t discredit her because she’s a woman,” Bates said.
She said it’s possible that gender played a role in Clinton’s loss in 2016, but she hopes that wasn’t the case.
“I think as a nation we were still ready to pivot, to change our thinking and to elect a woman president,” Bates said, “and hopefully we’re even more ready now.”
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Price reported from New York. Associated Press writer Jocelyn Noveck in New York contributed to this report.
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The poll was conducted Sept. 12-16, 2024 among 2,028 adults using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for all respondents is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
